One more day of monsoons

Scattered middle and high level clouds continue to stream over the region from the south this morning and the stratus deck remains well offshore.




Evening aircraft soundings from ksan show weak west to northwest flow in the low levels and east flow aloft. Precipitable water remains fairly high at 1.73 inches.




With the upper level high still in place over nm/Colorado today...



subtropical moisture will continue to advect into the region and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening...mainly over the mountains and deserts.


However...moisture begins to decrease today and dynamic forcing will not be as strong...so dont expect convection to be as widespread as yesterday. With little change in dew points in the inland Empire and strong heating expected again...would not be surprised to see a storm or two fire along the Elsinore convergence zone again if the boundary sets up this afternoon.



Any thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential for deadly lightning...strong gusty winds...hail...and periods of locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise...warm and humid weather with partly cloudy skies is expected again today.


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July 6th Chase

Went chasing on Wednesday.
Started heading towards the Elsinore Convergance but that dissipated way too quickly and moved north east towards Big Bear.



On the road that too dissipated so after recalculations, headed north towards Barstow where a cluster of strong storms continued to fire.



Not much lightning but some fantastic clouds and large amounts of rain.















Ended the chase meeting the Strombburgs and Will out in the desert.



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More Mt & Desert CB's today

A north-S oriented band of light precipitation has developed this morning and is currently moving through the eastern portion of the County Warning Area.



Little measurable rainfall is expected with this band.



Have added isolated thunderstorms to the forecast for the mountains and portions of the deserts through the morning.


The upper level high over The Four Corners region will continue to bring monsoon moisture to Southern California over the next few days.



Best chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period will be today...mainly over the mountains and deserts...as a decent amount of middle level moisture moves in an easterly wave passes by.



Any storms that develop could produce gusty winds...small hail...and heavy rain. Isolated flash flooding is also a possibility.






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Monsoon arrives

Outflow from thunderstorms over northwest Mexico has pushed an outflow boundary across Imperial County and into the San Diego County deserts and the southern end of the Coachella Valley.


This is the leading edge of the monsoonal moisture that will continue to spread into southwest California from the southeast through Monday. This moisture may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon. Moisture is limited and mostly above 600 mb.


Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon over the mountains and upper deserts could have some dry lightning strikes and strong gusty winds to around 40 miles per hour.


Rainfall is expected to be limited. The increasing monsoonal moisture will take a slight edge off the heat today with the greatest decrease in temperatures in the lower deserts. For tonight...a greater influx of moisture from the southeast is expected.


This could bring a few showers or isolated thunderstorms late tonight into early Monday morning mainly across about the southeast half of the forecast area. This increased moisture will bring a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and early evening to the mountains and deserts. A little greater cooling for most areas is expected for Monday from the increasing moisture. A weaker additional influx of moisture from the southeast is shown for late Monday night into early Tuesday.


This will continue the chance for thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts Tuesday afternoon and early evening.


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Hot Fourth of July and start of the monsoon season!

NWS SGX says...Temperatures will be on the rise this holiday weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. A weak southeasterly monsoonal flow will bring a slight chance for mountain and high desert thunderstorms on July 4th.




Monsoonal moisture in southeast flow aloft will gradually filter into Southern California through early next week. It may be enough for a few clouds over the mountains this afternoon and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall...dry lighting...and gusty winds for Sunday afternoon and early evening.




The models are showing a greater influx of moisture for Sunday night into Monday. Probability of precipitation have been increased some. If later runs are consistent with this trend...probability of precipitation in the mountains and deserts may need to be increased more for Monday and high temperatures in the inland areas...especially the lower deserts...may need to be lowered some. That will be the general trend for Monday through Thursday...high temperatures a little lower offset by higher humidity.




Coastal low clouds may be quite limited through middle week and the chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts will continue. By late in the week...weak southwest flow aloft may develop bringing minor cooling and drying. However...this push of dry air is weak and may not completely dislodge the moisture that will be in place by that time nor displace it too far to the east if it does. The current forecast shows only gradual drying and decreasing probability of precipitation going into next weekend.








UV Index is still extreme for the SW USA.


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It's true

I've severely neglected blogging about the weather. Who can blame me? Between twitter and Facebook my Internet time is zapped. Plus those mediums let me say what I want quickly and efficiently.

Well, my wife got me an iPad. So hopefully it will be easier to blog when I have the time. I added a pic below to see how awesome the RadarScope app looks on the iPad. I'm happy with it so far. I'm still working on getting all my weather short-cuts on it.




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10 Yr. Record Rain's

An active polar jetstream will transport a series of disturbances over the region this weekend into next week. The shortwaves will combine with the moist airmass and orographic lifting to produce periods of heavier precipitation especially in the mountains and foothills, with higher amounts in San Bernardino county. The graphic displays forecast storm total rainfall for Friday through Tuesday evening.




.. Strong Pacific storm systems will bring high rain amounts to
Southern California through at least Wednesday...

Deep moist flow out of the Pacific will bring periods of rain
through next Wednesday. Heaviest precipitation will occur
Sunday... Tuesday and Wednesday... but steady long-lasting rain of
light to moderate intensity will be likely during other times.
This weekend... southwestern California will be at the south edge
of the deep moisture... so Orange and San Bernardino counties will
generally receive more rainfall than San Diego and Riverside
counties. Strong upslope flow will result in the mountains
receiving large amounts of precipitation... with up to 8 inches
possible in the San Bernardino County mountains through Sunday
night. The moisture plume will be directly over Southern
California Tuesday and Wednesday... so the entire region will
likely have heavy rainfall then.



Total rainfall estimates for the period Friday night through
Sunday night are as follows:

San Diego County coast 1.00 to 1.50 inches
San Diego County valleys 1.50 to 2.00 inches
Orange County coast 1.50 to 2.50 inches
inland Empire 1.25 to 3.00 inches (highest north)
San Diego County mountains 2.00 to 5.00 inches
Riverside County mountains 2.50 to 5.00 inches
Santa Ana Mountains 3.00 to 6.00 inches
San Bernardino County mtns 4.00 to 8.00 inches



Note that mountain totals will be highly variable. For the deserts...

San Diego County deserts around one-half inch
Coachella Valley less than one inch Apple and Lucerne valleys around one inch

Heavy rainfall accumulations are expected... but they will be due to
long durations and not due to heavy intensities. Therefore... the
flash flood threat will be fairly low over the weekend... though this
could change with the heavy rain next Tuesday or Wednesday. Some low
lying spots... especially along streets... could have minor flooding
this weekend. Streams and washes which might normally be dry could
have water flowing through them.



Through Tuesday... snow levels will be above 8000 feet... and
confined to the highest peaks of San Bernardino and Riverside
counties. However... a brief period heavy snow down to 6500 feet
is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front comes
through.