At 11 AM the stratus layer in now burning off a bit. The forecast was for deepening of the layer but that has apparently not happened quick enough to prevent holes in the stratus. Nothing on the radar yet and it seems the consensus is that the low will now close and move south and then east over Baja California. SPC has a slight risk for thunderstorms (mostly offshore) and models show a cooling in the 500mb to -23. The surface winds are still offshore but lightly from the E.
Update: 2:45PM
Over the last few hours the broken marine layer thickened and additional helicity transformed the moisture into cumulus and Cu congestus. The 1km visable shows that most of the clouds are forming onshore. A moderate mid and upper level movement is driving everything east while the surface winds are now trending from the south as the low approaches about 300 miles to the west. SGX AFD is now mentioning that there should be enough LI for small hail in the cells. Currently the front is approaching VBX and a line of showers associated with the front is now visable. The cold core of the low on the IR4 shows storms however they are not as cold in the upper levels as the front is and seem to be weakening.
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