In the past, every chance of rain meant that it would rain somewhere nearby. Now I know the definition of POP chances but still I was always a glass full kind of person. Eventually I came up with my own system to translate POP that seemed to work for several decades. Unfourtunatly it's not very scientific. Basically when the forecast gave a 10% or 20% chance of rain, I would equate that to a dry trough was going to move through or brush by and there would not be rain. When the forecast was 30% chance of rain, we usually got rain. When it was 40%, the average was we would get rain half of the time. 50% chance and above meant we would get rain for sure and it was just a question of how much we would receive. See! Not very scientific.
I've changed my mind. Now my thinking is that anything less than 50% means rain is unlikley. Essentially when I see we have a 20% chance of rain, means to me that we won't get any. This is a fantastic approach because if we ever do which is unlikley then I appreciate the rain just that much more!
Case in point was yesterday. We had a 20% chance at best so to me were weren't getting any and the models were leaning that way after every run as well. We did have a very nice mid-winter time tropical type day. Warm slightly humid air with stratus in the morning giving way to altocumulus and altocirrus towards the afternoon. Not very typical for February in SoCal. Still my hopes were not dashed because the rain never came and I wasn't expecting it either. On a positive note I really enjoy the altocumulus buildups and heaping cumulus. It reminds me of the monsoon season still a half a year away.
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
No comments:
Post a Comment